Twelve years ago, just after the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Democratic candidate Howard Dean raised his voice, balled his fist and entered political history as a man w… ...

FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

Ron DeSantis Ron DeSantis Probably Didn't Turn Florida Red The state was already changing in big ways before he was elected governor.

Voting Rights How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress And why people of color are winning more seats outside of those districts too.

FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions have gone through quite an evolution over the years. As we hinted at in our preview post for the 2018-19 season, we made some big changes to the way we predict ...

America’s cities are some of its most solidly Democratic areas — but that doesn’t mean they are solidly liberal. Over the past two years, the mayoral elections … ...

Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of… ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

House Republicans The 5 Main Factions Of The House GOP And how they’re likely to govern for the next two years.

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans ...

FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.