FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

Monica Potts is a senior politics reporter at FiveThirtyEight.

Voting Rights How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress And why people of color are winning more seats outside of those districts too.

Joe Biden is officially running for a second term. What are his chances in the Democratic primary and the general election?

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

Looking for a last-minute Valentine’s Day reservation? It might be easier to get one this year than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic — and not just because some people are still avoiding ...

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of h… ...

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

2024 Election Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary The polls, and history, are on his side.

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans ...

If it were up to me — and I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan, where you could literally hear the roar of the crowd from Spartan Stadium in my backyard on game days — the Big Ten would have ...

The Details FiveThirtyEight’s Senate, House and gubernatorial models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. There are, however ...